The major indexes reached an all-time high this week, with the S&P 500 eclipsing 6,500. The key drivers are the positive inflation data announcement and the expected Federal Funds rate cut next week. Zooming out a bit in view of all of 2025, the major indexes have responded very well since mid-April, with the S&P 500 being up 12% year to date. With just over one quarter remaining in 2025, this year has turned out to be very strong so far. It is possible and most likely the case that next week’s expected rate cut is already priced into the market. However, there’s a chance the markets may still receive a positive boost after the announcement. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet next Tuesday and Wednesday.
In corporate news, Paramount Skydance is preparing a takeover offer to buy Warner Bros. Discovery. Paramount – home to movies such as Star Trek, Paw Patrol, and Mission Impossible and already one of the biggest film studios - would acquire the studio that is home to other hit movies, including DC superheroes, The Lord of the Rings, and Harry Potter. Shares for both companies have increased significantly this week in anticipation of the deal; however, a final bid has yet to be submitted. Apple made headlines on Tuesday during its unique and memorable new product reveal event. Among the most popular new products were the iPhone 17, AirPods Pro 3, Apple Watch Series 11, Apple Watch SE 3, and the ambitious and highly anticipated iPhone Air. Among the new features, the Series 11 watch can detect hypertension and measure sleep quality, the AirPods Pro 3 can receive instantaneous language translation, and the iPhone Air is slick and flashy. At a total of 5.6 millimeters thick, Apple CEO Tim Cook stated that the iPhone Air is the “biggest leap ever for iPhone.”
As for economic data, the main piece of data this week was announced on Tuesday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. created 911,000 fewer jobs over the 12 months ending in March 2025 than previously estimated. This figure was at the high end of Wall Street expectations, which ranged from 600,000 to a million. This revision is based on the quarterly census of Employment and Wages data. Although this data is a year old and doesn’t necessarily reflect current economic conditions, the summer months have pointed to a soft labor market. The August Producer Price Index (PPI) was released on Wednesday and showed a pleasant decline of 0.1% month-over-month and beat expectations of a 0.3% rise. This PPI figure is markedly down from the July figure of a 0.9% month-over-month increase. The August Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released on Thursday and was in line with estimates of 0.3% month-over-month.
It is that time of year, and the NFL season is back. Week one was full of upsets, injuries, nerve-racking fourth quarters, and a painful but victorious week for the Cincinnati Bengals. The reigning Super Bowl champions, the Philadelphia Eagles, showed up and beat the Dallas Cowboys 24-20. Joe Burrow had a dismal performance with just 113 passing yards and one touchdown, which was enough to squeeze out a win over the Cleveland Browns, 17-16. The most exciting game was Sunday night, where Josh Allen led the Buffalo Bills to a fourth-quarter miracle win after being down by 15 points to the Baltimore Ravens. With the start of the NFL season, fantasy football is also back and underway. According to 2023 surveys and studies, a total of roughly 30 million Americans play fantasy football, accounting for almost 10% of the overall population. A few reasons it is so popular and growing are the camaraderie and competition with friends and family, the excitement of tracking individual player performance over team performance, and, not to mention, the potential for cash prizes. Looking to this Sunday, the Cincinnati Bengals have a home game against the Jacksonville Jaguars at 1:00 pm.
Ryan Motsinger
